Our Intermediate Trend Factors have turned negative. Our Long Term Reversal Factors remain negative.
The current combination is on average negative for the stock market. It also encompasses the 1929 crash, most of the 1973-74 bear market, 1987 crash, most of the 2000-2002 bear market, and most of the 2007-2009 bear market.
However, it is always possible that our Intermediate Term Trend Factors could next turn positive when the market is at a higher level than it is now. This could also happen in as little as a week.
Even with this possibility, we believe reducing our stock market exposure is the right decision. Our ideal stock market exposure has been lowered to 0%.
