WEGENER, LLC - Adaptive Asset Management

Ideal Stock Market Exposure - No Change

Our Long Term Reversal Factors and Intermediate Trend Factors remain negative. Our Ideal Stock Market Exposure remains 0%.

Our Long Term Reversal Factors and Intermediate Trend Factors remain negative. Our Ideal Stock Market Exposure remains 0%.

Ideal Stock Market Exposure - No Change

Our Long Term Reversal Factors and Intermediate Trend Factors remain negative. Our Ideal Stock Market Exposure remains 0%.

Ideal Stock Market Exposure - No Change

Our Long Term Reversal Factors and Intermediate Trend Factors remain negative. Our Ideal Stock Market Exposure remains 0%.

Ideal Stock Market Exposure - No Change

Our Long Term Reversal Factors and Intermediate Trend Factors remain negative. Our Ideal Stock Market Exposure remains 0%.

Ideal Stock Market Exposure - No Change

Our Long Term Reversal Factors and Intermediate Trend Factors remain negative. Our Ideal Stock Market Exposure remains 0%.

Lowering Ideal Stock Market Exposure

Our Intermediate Term Trend Factors have again turned negative. Our Long Term Reversal Factors remain negative. We now return to the combination that was discussed here. The stock market has on average had negative returns while this combination has been in place. Our Ideal Stock Market Exposure has been lowered to 0%. 

Increasing Ideal Stock Market Exposure

Our Intermediate Term Trend Factors have turned positive. Our Long Term Reversal Factors remain negative. We now return to the combination that was discussed here. Our Ideal Stock Market Exposure has been increased to 70-80%. 

Ideal Stock Market Exposure - No Change

Our Long Term Reversal Factors and Intermediate Trend Factors remain negative. Our ideal stock market exposure remains 0%.

Ideal Stock Market Exposure Lowered

Our Intermediate Trend Factors have turned negative.  Our Long Term Reversal Factors remain negative.  

 

The current combination is on average negative for the stock market. It also encompasses the 1929 crash, most of the 1973-74 bear market, 1987 crash, most of the 2000-2002 bear market, and most of the 2007-2009 bear market.

However, it is always possible that our Intermediate Term Trend Factors could next turn positive when the market is at a higher level than it is now. This could also happen in as little as a week.

Even with this possibility, we believe reducing our stock market exposure is the right decision.  Our ideal stock market exposure has been lowered to 0%.

Ideal Stock Market Exposure - No Change

Our Long Term Reversal Factors remain negative.  Our Intermediate Term Trend Factors remain positive. Our Ideal Market Exposure remains between 70-80%.